Both nations approach a crisis point. Identification with Christianity remains higher in censuses than in surveys that measure religion by first asking respondents whether they have a religion and then, as a second step, collecting affiliation data only for those who answer that, yes, they. The picture is not pretty. Catholics will elect a new pope. In the United States, arobust new studyindicates that at least 12% to 15% of the American Jewish population are people of color. I have read articles, attended presentations and been a part of many conversations which all echo the same conclusion: "We'll be smaller and we'll look different, but religious life will continue." Where we see new forms of religious life already emerging in their seeking, in their connecting, in their commitment. Up ahead there is a new horizon of religious consciousness awakening, Along with the decline in the percentage of U.S. adults who identify as Christian in recent years, Pew Research Center surveys have found declining shares of the population who say they pray daily or consider religion very important in their lives. Illustration: Brian Stauffer for The Wall Street Journal. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Performance". For example, we estimate that 31% of people raised Christian become unaffiliated between ages 15 to 29, the tumultuous period in which religious switching is concentrated.2 An additional 7% of people raised Christian become unaffiliated later in life, after the age of 30. The no switching scenario (No. Big churches sound alike. In the past 10 years, in and out of Latin America, Latin American families have witnessed significant religious upheaval, and this is a truly historic moment in terms of religious diversity throughout Central and South America and for such families outside of Latin America. Americas estimated 3.8 million to 8 million Muslims will continue to build political power, motivated by Islamic values such as peace and justice. But now, like a patient with a terminal diagnosis, we are moving from denial to acceptance of decline and diminishment with a tagged-on, just-in-case-there-is-a-future caveat, "We're going to look different." Overall, this scenario seems to most closely fit the patterns observed in recent years. In the next decade, progressive denominations may succeed in promoting a more inclusive definition, both in the United States and Israel. What Does the Future Hold for Religion It conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, media content analysis and other empirical social science research. None of these hypothetical scenarios is certain to unfold exactly as modeled, but collectively they demonstrate how much impact switching could have on the overall populations religious composition within a few decades. National Public Opinion Reference Survey, About Three-in-Ten U.S. [Linda Romey is a Benedictine Sister of Erie, Pennsylvania, and is the community's web developer/designer. Future of Religious Life These population projections were produced as part of the Pew-Templeton Global Religious Futures project, which analyzes religious change and its impact on societies around the world. During earlier childhood years, a parents religion (or lack thereof) is often, but not always, transmitted to a child. He is a senior fellow at the National Jewish Center for Learning and Leadership. Adherents of all other religions including Jews, Muslims, Hindus and Buddhists totaled about 6%.1. Villarejos name had been circulating in the Spanish press for years. You've read 0 of 5 of todays most popular posts. It was Nov. 3, 2017, and the target was Jos Manuel Villarejo Prez, a former government spy. There is a related but distinct trend of the drift of practicing Muslims to both the left and to the right. Sikh Americans have fought for the opportunity to serve in the military, police and Secret Service while observing their faiths tenets. Where we need to see older women looking for a community and a way to respond to the needs around them. 1. How U.S. religious composition has changed in recent decades How U.S. religious composition has changed in recent decades Only a few decades ago, a Christian identity was so common among Americans that it could almost be RELIGIOUS LIFE IN THE 21ST CENTURY: THE PROSPECT OF REFOUNDING By Diarmuid O'Murchu Published by Orbis Books, 272 pages, $26. So who are they? The New York Times Funding for the Global Religious Futures project comes from The Pew Charitable Trusts and the John Templeton Foundation. The Centers data shows the vast majority of teens (about 85%) have the same religious identity as their mother, while 16% report a different identity. This includes the harsh suppression of Muslim minorities in Myanmar and China, the Modi governments effort to define India as a Hindu state and the embrace of Eastern Orthodoxy in Russia. These are the moderate forms of American Protestantism typified by United Methodists and Episcopalians. At 57, I am still considered a "young sister" because there are so few younger than me. This is our new normal, and it has profound consequences for societies that have drawn their strength and prosperity from pluralism and diversity. Best of BBC Future. I often see invitations for "come and see" vocation weekends that invite young women to explore religious life, to listen to God's call. The main contribution of this study is to analyze recent trends and show how the U.S. religious landscape would shift if they continued. We are living in a moment where God is saying, to quote Isaiah, 'Behold, I am doing something new. Hosted by Natalie Kitroeff. Only a modest amount of switching is modeled among older adults. But this need not be viewed by many of the faithful as something to fear, for it will usher in an establishment of religiously neutral secularism that will drive respect for people of all faiths and philosophies. However, among groups of older adults born after World War II, we model ongoing switching in which 7% of Americans who were raised Christian will switch out between the ages of 30 and 65. Global Sisters Report a project of National Catholic Reporter, Send your thoughts to Letters to the Editor. That is why this report focuses on switching among young Americans. The problem of where ancient Jerusalem was built gets thornier, Thousands protest in Iraq for a second day over burning of Quran in Sweden, UCC elects first woman and first woman of African descent to lead denomination, Halted appointment of theology dean rocks the Vatican and beyond, Copyright 2023, Religion News Service. Key Findings From the Global Religious Futures Project WebA richly challenging book which engages with significant contemporary theology in a reflection on religious life surviving beyond traditional cultural and religious interpretive patterns. WebDiscernment on the Future of Religious Life. BBC Future In the next decade, expect the Supreme Court to issue multiple, significant decisions on religious freedom. I understand the denial as these strong women not only began to deal with their own aging process but also realized that there were not sufficient numbers of younger members to carry forth their great vision and good works. Who is a Jew? The result has been significant, unprecedented religious freedom conflicts involving traditional Christian views. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Other. Fertility and mortality rates are held steady, as are rates of intergenerational transmission. For the purposes of the models in this study, we present estimated and projected shares of Americans of all ages, including children. Putting that faith into action The numbers of Latinx in non-Christian traditions is small, but in Islam, for example, Latinx are ready to move into their second generation. WebThe Future of Religious Life. Find 2018s predictions here and 2019s predictions here. In Pew Research Centers. However, its undeniable that American culture and politics will slowly begin to change as the nones continue to rise. Hindu temples, mosques and other houses of worship are suing for the right to build, rather than avoiding conflict and settling for inferior locations as many previously did. Many of todays young adults no longer dream about being a tycoon on Wall Street or reaching the ivory towers of a major corporation. Notions of real Americanness weave together whiteness and Christianity, while Indian national identity and policy grow increasingly Hindu. That result is stunning considering that this group made up 30% of the population in 1976. At the time, Muslims were constantly being put on the defensive. She is a chaplain to Boston cyclists and a mender. Finally, the shifting sizes of U.S. religious groups depend partly on rates of religious transmission whether parents pass their religious identity on to their children. They came to community at 17 or 18, came of age in the rigid and rule-bound pre-Vatican II religious life, broke free during renewal and subsequently built the great communities and good works that, 50 years later, define religious life in the United States. Religion will be front and center in the 2020 election cycle. We use cookies on our website to give you the most relevant experience by remembering your preferences and repeat visits. In this study, transmission rates are calculated based on the share of children who inherit their mothers religion (or their mothers unaffiliated identity) because mothers tend to successfully transmit their religious identities more often than fathers do. And it will hold that the government doesnt get to pick one side of that divide and punish everyone who disagrees, but must instead protect the equality and dignity of both sides of the debate. The Centers analysis of U.S. and international data indicates that modest levels of disaffiliation among older adults could be a stage that Christian-majority countries go through when Christian identity stops being widely taken for granted until about 30% of those raised Christian already have shed Christian identity by the time they reach 30. What if the pace of religious switching continues to accelerate? God says let there be light, and it sprang into being. This digitization to religious engagement both gives more access and risks fragmentation, polarization and the loss of shared understanding, experience and solidarity. 1615 L St. NW, Suite 800Washington, DC 20036USA This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. (One reason for this is that parents of childbearing age are more likely to be religiously unaffiliated than are older adults). Most people dont change their religious identity. Switching assumption: The share of Christians who disaffiliate by the time they reach 30 continues to rise with each successive generation, and rates of disaffiliation are allowed to continue rising even after Christian retention drops below 50% (i.e., no limit is imposed). But among those who do, the switch typically happens between the ages of 15 and 29. European Jews are accustomed to this; it has been part of their narrative for the past thousand years. Silk writes theSpiritual Politics column at RNS. Future of Religion Given all that, theres a growing consensus that the future of religion is that it has no future. But in 2024, demographic waves will crash onto our political shores. But maybe even a bigger shift was the event that prompted his election: the 2013 resignation of Pope Benedict, the first time a pope has resigned by his own decision since 1294. At the same time, the nature of our divisions in the church has changed. As Americans asked Where are the moderate Muslims? Given all that, theres a growing consensus that the future of religion is that it has no future. I am middle-aged. These cookies track visitors across websites and collect information to provide customized ads. This consistency does not imply more certainty or precision compared with projections for Christians and nones. Rather, the growth of other religions is likely to hinge on the future of migration (rather than religious switching), and migration patterns are held constant across all four scenarios. Health Gap. Moreover, the scenarios in this report are limited to religious identity and do not project how religious beliefs and practices might change in the coming decades. January 2, 2020 By Aysha Khan (RNS) The past 10 years have witnessed monumental demographic shifts in the U.S., catastrophic natural disasters and new urgency However, theories about the root causes of religious change and speculation about its societal impact are not the focus of this report. Given all that, theres a growing consensus that the future of religion is that it has no future.. The proliferation ofdigitalplatformshas negatively impacted democratic societyand representative governmentthrough the spread of misinformation, disinformation,hate speechtargeting ethnic and religious minorities, and inflammatory rhetoric that incites violence and sows discord, confusion and chaos. The alternative scenarios are intended to help isolate and thereby illuminate the impact of various factors. Bans on religious symbols in Canada and France. Still, it is an open question whether the Christian population in the future will be more or less highly committed than U.S. Christians are today. Courtesy of Massachusetts Council of Churches. His latest book is Resisting Throwaway Culture.. These additional projections show how the U.S. religious landscape might change if current switching patterns held steady, but intergenerational religious transmission occurred in 100% of cases; there were no fertility differences by religion; there was no switching after age 30; or there was no migration after 2020. Rates of transmission for three identity categories (Christian, other religion, and religiously unaffiliated) are estimated based on the percentages of teens (ages 13 to 17) who shared their mothers religious affiliation in a 2019 survey of 1,811 pairs of U.S. parents and teens. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. Up ahead there is a new horizon of religious consciousness awakening, a new type of religious person is forming, and thus a new type of church will eventually appear with a new zest for life. As much as the church feels unsteady, Im clinging to the hope of Gods enduring provision, whatever may need to crumble and fall. Eight hundred thousand Israelis now identify as Reform or Conservative Jews, and they are less and less likely to allow fundamentalists who dominate niche areas of government to tell them what to do. Between 2010 and 2050, the worlds total population is expected to rise to 9.3 billion, a 35% increase. Goodrich is an attorney at the Becket Fund for Religious Liberty. Snchez-Walsh is a professor of religious studies at Azusa Pacific University and the author of Latino Pentecostal Identity: Evangelical Faith, Self, and Society.. Most significantly, each new generation sees 31% of people who were raised Christian become religiously unaffiliated by the time they reach 30, while 21% of those who grew up with no religion become Christian. It may be useful to consider the experience of other countries in which data on religious switching is available. Let's start directing the change. Best of BBC Future. BBC Future There has also been widespread popularity for the transformational leadership of Pope Francis and a growing movement ofinterfaith peacemakingandcollaboration for the common good. My prediction for these communities? Online communities like Monasteries of the Heart and social movements like Occupy Wall Street and even fitness/spirituality movements like SoulCycle are ways people connect and find meaning today. Future of Religion And in the context of same-sex marriage, expect the court to make good on its promise in Obergefell, its landmark decision affirming same-sex marriage, that religions, and those who adhere to religious doctrines, may continue to advocate with utmost, sincere conviction that, by divine precepts, same-sex marriage should not be condoned. In other words, the court will recognize that our country is deeply divided on matters of religion and sexuality. He The drift away will continue for Latinx Catholics and Protestants, but what about Latinx Muslims and Jews? Latest. What if Christians keep leaving religion at the same rate observed in recent years? Why dont Muslims condemn terror?, many of us felt education could help solve the problem. Examples include the over 100 federal lawsuits filed over the contraception mandate, culminating in the Hobby Lobby and Little Sisters of the Poor decisions by the Supreme Court; and the increasingly common litigation over conscientious objections to same-sex marriage by religious wedding vendors, schools, counselors and adoption agencies. It is a call to step out of our comfort zones, embrace These dynamics could lead to rising levels of commitment in the remaining Christian population. The four main scenarios presented here vary primarily in their assumptions about the future of religious switching among Americans between the ages of 15 and 29 which are the years when most religious change happens. Stanton leads East End Temple in Manhattan. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. Take action to welcome the emerging future of religious life Switching assumption: Continuing a recent pattern, switching out of Christianity becomes more common among young Americans as each generation sees a progressively larger share of Christians leave religion by the age of 30. Lost Index. The various input data is used in projection models to illustrate what the future religious composition of the U.S. might look like under a range of hypothetical scenarios. (+1) 202-857-8562 | Fax In 2015, Pew Research Center projected the growth of several of these groups separately, both in the U.S. and around the world, and the Center may do so again in the future. Switching by religiously unaffiliated, older Americans into Christianity is not modeled in the projections because there is no clear trend in this direction. Future of Religious Life The answer, it What if switching were to stop, but other demographic trends such as migration, births and deaths were to continue at current rates? In 2020 the starting point for the scenarios in this report U.S. children were slightly less likely than adults to be religiously affiliated. 3) assumes there is a kind of ever-increasing momentum behind religious switching. How and why did religion evolve? - BBC Future Thinkers have been promoting that same consensus since the 17 th and 18 The polls vary from 8% to nearly 20% or more, but what is clear is that religion becomes less important as the Latinx community comes into its first and second generation of growth in higher education and professional careers, and moves away from traditional family bonds. (+1) 202-419-4300 | Main The views expressed in these submissions, which have been edited lightly for length and clarity, do not necessarily reflect those of Religion News Service. In Roman Catholicism, lots of folks are going to speak about the election and pontificate of Pope Francis and that, indeed, has been a major shift and event. The New York Times One organism dies, another is reborn. For more information about modeling assumptions and results, see Chapter 2 and the Methodology. Because words frame our perspective, I propose that we shift diminishment language to the language of evolution, that we focus on our renewal as a prophetic life form, to our growth and development. Switching assumption: This scenario imagines no person in America has changed or will change their religion after 2020. Our base model includes estimated rates of switching in all directions, not just from Christianity to unaffiliated. By 2019, support for same-sex marriage among the general public had jumped to 66%, with solid majorities among non-Christian religious Americans such as Jews, Hindus, Buddhists and Muslims (80%), white mainline Protestants (74%) and Catholics (72%). In this report, Pew Research Center has incorporated estimates of intergenerational transmission of religion into our projections for the first time. Tomorrows Gods: What is the future of religion? - BBC Future The unaffiliated would remain a substantial minority, at 34%. He is an associate professor of theological and social ethics at Fordham University. We asked scholars, faith leaders, activists and other experts to reflect on some of the biggest shifts in religious landscapes they have seen over the last 10 years as well as the biggest themes in the world of religion that they expect to emerge in the 2020s. Outcome: If switching among young Americans continued at recent rates, Christians would decline as a share of the population by a few percentage points per decade, dipping below 50% by 2060. 4) is not realistic switching has not ended and there is no reason to think it will come to an abrupt stop. Currently, the GOP base is about 70% white and Christian. More specifically, I was interested in how long it would take for the religiously unaffiliated, who have seen major gains over the past decade, to be clearly the largest group in the United States. Extra Savings 90 days FREE Amazon Music. The more tightly President Donald Trump ties the party to this shrinking and graying base, the longer the road to victory will be in 2024 for the Republican nominee, who by necessity mustcreate a broader, younger and more racially diverse coalition. Religious Life at the Crossroad is the 21st-century analysis of the present and future of religious life. By clicking Accept All, you consent to the use of ALL the cookies. This is where we need to see what is really in front of us where we need to see the hunger for spirituality that pervades our society. The similarities between humans and chimps are well known, but one important difference has to do with group size. How a dose of MDMA transformed a white supremacist - BBC Future But, because data on religious switching and intergenerational transmission is less reliable for groups with small sample sizes in surveys, non-Christian groups are not shown separately in this report. New patterns of religious change could emerge at any time. In each scenario, the groups begin with their current profiles in terms of age and gender. I hope not. The Sunday Read: The Spy Who Called Me - The New York Times He runs the Patheos blog Sin God. There are retirement funds to grow and elderly to care for and buildings to dispose of and ministries and institutions we can no longer administer. The Jewish arts are experiencing a new vitality. This shift in understanding moved religious life from being within the hierarchical church to its rightful place within the charismatic church, helping to clarify its nature and purpose. Outcome: If the pace of switching before the age of 30 were to speed up initially but then hold steady, Christians would lose their majority status by 2050, when they would be 47% of the U.S. population (versus 42% for the unaffiliated). By 2055, the unaffiliated would make up the largest group (46%), ahead of Christians (43%). 1 Over that same period, Muslims a comparatively youthful population with high fertility rates are projected to increase by 73%. Immigration has an outsized effect on the composition of non-Christian groups in the U.S. because adherents of religions like Islam and Hinduism make up a larger share of new arrivals than they do of the existing U.S. population. Unlike organized institutional religions, those Latinx who practice popular religion will continue to grow, diversify and add to the stunning diversity of our communities. In India, rising protests and the governments violent response will spark a reckoning about how the nation treats its minorities. A Christian retention rate of 66% would mean that two-thirds of people raised as Christians remain Christians in adulthood. This shows up as the paradigms and language of progressive social movements in the case of the left, and the alt-right in the case of the right. There have been Latinx Jews for centuries some families just found that out this week! I want to actively create our future. The percentage of adults in Britain who identify as Christian depends, in part, on how the question is asked. The election year will cause more of it to spew out of the body politic. With Lisa Chow. Future of religious life At the start of the decade, 53% of Americans identified as white and Christian; by 2014, that proportion was 47%, and today it has reached 42%. He has also become the worlds most important voice of conscience, emphasizing the plight of immigrants at a time of increased demographic dislocations and, perhaps most importantly, putting his moral authority behind the cause of combating climate change. Religious For the country as a whole, the major shift has been the continuing growth of nones as a percentage of the population. Sensing the Spirit: Toward the Future of Religious Life. At the same time, many observers have wondered what kinds of spiritual practices, if any, may fill the void left by institutional religion. Armed conflicts, social movements, rising authoritarianism, natural disasters or worsening economic conditions are just a few of the circumstances that sometimes trigger sudden social and religious upheavals. Does it have to be canonical?